Even though you continue to read about the rising divorce rate, the divorce surge is overit is no longer true that the divorce rate is rising, or that half of all marriages end in divorce. Actually, this has been true for some time.

Marriages in the United States are stronger than they have ever been. The divorce rate peaked in the l970’s and early 1980’s and has been declining since.

According  to data from Justin Wolfers, a University of Michigan economist (who also contributes to The Upshot), about 70 percent of marriages that began in the 1990’s reached their 15th anniversary. This is up from about 65 percent of those that began in the 1970’s and 1980’s. Those who married in the 2000’s are divorcing at even lower rates. If current trends continue, nearly two-thirds of marriages will never end in divorce.

There are many reasons for the drop in divorce. Some of these are later marriages and birth control, and marriage for love. The delay in marriage allows people more time to know what they want in a partner. Also, the fact that most people live together before marrying means that more unhappy relationships end in breakups instead of divorce. Some of the decline in divorce stems from fewer people actually getting married.

The decline in divorce is concentrated among people with college degrees. Unfortunately, for the less educated, divorce rates are closer to those of the peak divorce years. This causes rising economic aid and social inequality.

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